The White Wash: A Deeper Look into the 2024 Election Results
In the aftermath of the 2024 election, one of the most intriguing outcomes has been the significant shift among young voters and the decline of support for the Democratic ticket. While some may hastily attribute this to sexism, misogyny, or even the last-minute selection of Kamala Harris as the vice-presidential candidate, political analysts like Richard Reeves argue that the problem lies deeper—rooted in a fundamental misstep in the Democratic Party’s strategy.
Reeves’s analysis of the election paints a larger picture: the issue wasn’t just about a female candidate or last-minute political maneuvering. Even if the Democrats had fielded a more popular male candidate, the results would have likely been similar. The key takeaway here is that the Democratic Party failed to address the broader concerns of key demographic groups, especially young voters and young men, both of whom seemed to have felt they were left out of the equation.
Richard Reeves’s Analysis: The Fundamental Flaw in Strategy
Richard Reeves’s analysis (see the full video here: [Richard Reeves Election Analysis]) sheds light on why the Democrats faced such a massive backlash from young voters. The election results showed that young men, in particular, abandoned the Democratic Party in favor of Donald Trump. This wasn’t solely due to Trump’s personal appeal but more about his policies on the economy, taxes, and job growth. As Reeves explains in the video (minute 9:30-10:45), many of these young male voters didn’t necessarily like Trump, but they believed his economic policies—such as lower taxes and manufacturing job growth—were more beneficial to their futures than what the Democratic Party had to offer.
However, there was a more subtle shift that cannot be ignored: the changing attitude of both young men and women towards traditional issues like abortion and women’s rights. According to exit polls (source: [The Guardian]), the number of young voters prioritizing abortion as their top issue plummeted from 44% in 2022 to just 13% in the 2024 election. This shift indicates that the Democrats’ focus on women’s issues may have alienated large segments of young voters who felt that their broader concerns, like economic opportunities, weren’t being addressed.
The Shift in the Vote: Men and Gen Z
When looking at the voting trends, the numbers are stark:
- Men's Vote for Democrats went down from 13% to 8 % in 2020
- Young women also moved to the Right - 40% voted Red compared to 33% in 2020
- Huge drop in all young voters for abortion from 2022. In 2022 44% in 2022 said abortion was the issue they put at their top priority. Whereas this fall, the issue was only 13%
- Not many turned up to vote - Early estimates show that only 42% of young people tuned out to vote which is much less than the 2020 election
This suggests a significant disconnect between the priorities of young voters and the Democratic Party's platform. Many young men, in particular, felt neglected by a party that seemed more focused on issues that disproportionately affected women. This dynamic helped Republicans gain an edge with younger, working-class voters who were more concerned about economic stability and job prospects than social issues.
Trump’s Appeal to Young Men: Economic Concerns Over Personal Politics
One of the most intriguing findings from focus groups during the election was that many young men didn’t necessarily like Trump but believed his policies were more in line with their economic interests. As discussed by Richard Reeves, these men said they were more interested in economic stability, lower taxes, and bringing jobs back to American manufacturing. It wasn’t about personal admiration for Trump but about the belief that he was better for their bottom line compared to the Democratic alternative.
This underscores a key point in Reeves’s analysis: many young men didn’t see the Democratic Party as addressing their needs. Even though they may have disagreed with Trump on many social issues, they saw him as a stronger advocate for their economic well-being. This highlights a failure of the Democrats to build a platform that resonates with this crucial demographic.
The Zero-Sum Game: Why Focusing Solely on Women’s Issues Backfired
Another significant factor contributing to the Democratic Party’s downfall in this election was the "zero-sum game" strategy regarding women’s issues. In an attempt to cater to female voters, the Democratic Party focused heavily on issues like abortion rights, female adoption rights, and other women-centric policies. While these policies resonated with a large portion of female voters, especially in local elections, they alienated many young men, who felt left out of the conversation.
As Joe Rogan, one of the most influential voices among young men across racial lines, noted, the Republican Party made a concerted effort to connect with young men, sending top figures like Trump and J.D. Vance to his show. This allowed them to reach a broad audience and, at times, propagate ideas that weren't always grounded in reality. In contrast, the Democratic Party failed to engage effectively with this demographic. In fact, Kamala Harris notably backed out of an appearance on the Joe Rogan podcast due to backlash from progressive staff members (source: NYPost).
This lack of outreach to young men was a significant misstep. Most young men don’t follow traditional news outlets but instead rely on long-form podcasts like Joe Rogan’s to stay informed. As a result, many young men felt that their issues were being overshadowed by the Democrats' focus on women's concerns. Ideas circulating in these podcast circles, such as the notion that Kamala Harris would fund sex-change procedures, fueled frustration, especially when issues like unemployment were more pressing for young men. By emphasizing women’s issues too heavily, the Democratic Party alienated many young men, even if they weren’t inherently opposed to policies supporting women’s rights.
Additionally, while high-profile endorsements from figures like Taylor Swift and other celebrities were meant to bolster Kamala Harris’s appeal to women, they didn’t necessarily resonate with all women, especially those who were more concerned about the economy and inflation. With abortion no longer a top issue for many, this created a political environment where the Democratic Party’s "zero-sum game" strategy backfired, losing the male vote and even losing women’s votes.
False Hope from the 2022 Midterms: A Misreading of the Political Landscape
The 2022 midterms, where the Democrats defied expectations and held onto key seats, may have given the party false hope heading into the 2024 election. As Ezra Klein mentions in his article in *The New York Times*, “The promised red wave never crashed ashore. Perhaps it would have been better if it had.” (source: [NY Times Article]) The unexpected success in 2022 may have caused the Democratic Party to misread the political climate and assume that their strategy was working. However, the 2024 election results show that this was a miscalculation, as the same demographic groups that had supported them in 2020—especially young voters—didn’t show up in the same numbers, and many of them shifted their allegiance to Trump.
Conclusion: What’s Next for the Democratic Party?
The 2024 election results serve as a wake-up call for the Democratic Party. While focusing on issues like women’s rights and abortion was important, it wasn’t enough to galvanize a broad base of support. By neglecting young men and failing to address their economic concerns, the Democrats have alienated a significant portion of their electorate. Moving forward, it will be crucial for the party to build a more inclusive platform that resonates with both men and women, addresses economic disparities, and creates policies that appeal to a broader spectrum of voters. If they don’t, they risk losing even more ground in future elections.